A Coronavirus Recession?The COVID-19 pandemic is unraveling the economy nationally and globally as most of the world moves toward a lockdown that entails the...
Coronavirus Impact on Trade- End in Sight or Just the Beginning?Anyone recall the uncertainty of the impact of tariffs on US trade? Now that we are in the coronavirus environment, uncertainty has...
A Brief Outlook for 2020According to the Federal Reserve, the Industrial Production Index has been on a slight decline since January 2018 with only a couple of...
Where Did All That Economic Growth Come From?Real gross domestic product in the United States increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, according to the federal Bureau of...
Growing Concern About the Global EconomyThe world economy, and thereby trade, is heading for a squall.
Uncertainty AboundsA lack of certainty makes life more complex for most people. Unfortunately, uncertainty is to be found everywhere one looks at present.
Forecasting is a Walk on the Wild SideWe have previously highlighted the difficulty of running economic forecasting models that cannot absorb the wild deviations caused by geo-po
Yo-Yo EconomyTrying to forecast in an environment that resembles a yo-yo in terms of economic data and policy is becoming an extreme challenge. What...
Politics Becomes a Trade Driver – but Only Short-TermIt seems that traditional economic fundamentals do not have the same impact on trade that they used to have. We are now in a politically...
The Reality of a Trade WarThe reality of the Trump administration’s concerted attack on trade and its linkage of trade to the U.S. deficit is finally beginning to...